Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Running themselves out of first place?


The Twins have developed a reputation for being a team that hustles all over the base paths, implementing an aggressive approach, and taking an extra 90 feet or more when the opportunity presents itself. More than that, they’ve often been lauded as doing so intelligently. According to an audit of the team’s baserunning on BillJamesOnline.net, the Twins’ results on the bases have radically changed from the prior two seasons.  

In 2009, the Twins scampered around the bases fairly liberally. Through their efforts, the team netted 42 additional bases going first to third, second to home and first to home while avoiding outs. Factoring in the 72% success rate of their stolen bases and the 2009 team gained approximately 63 bases above average. The year prior to that, the Twins netted 49 additional bases through hustle and another 18 by way of theft. This gave the Twins a positive 67 bases. This was good enough for sixth and third in the American League in those consecutive seasons. This season, the Twins have posted a -20 mark, the second-lowest total in the AL and their worst since the disappointing 2005 season.

Minnesota Twins
  1st to 3rd  
2nd to Home
1st to Home
DP
Bases
BR
BR
SB
Net
Year
Adv
Opp
Adv
Opp
Adv
Opp
Opp
GIDP
Taken
Outs
Gain
Gain
Gain
2002
72
222
105
186
25
68
1148
121
175
21
+33
-45
-12
2003
81
238
128
208
25
59
1273
139
186
28
+31
+6
+37
2004
63
218
105
172
25
65
1157
130
168
44
-6
+24
+18
2005
59
243
109
195
18
62
1089
154
153
46
-65
+14
-51
2006
87
275
131
218
24
58
1193
163
186
47
-10
+17
+7
2007
89
240
119
198
26
64
1159
148
154
60
-55
+52
-3
2008
82
245
139
233
28
66
1254
144
211
47
+49
+18
+67
2009
94
328
130
208
33
72
1265
146
197
41
+42
+21
+63
2010
48
161
68
113
20
49
625
95
90
26
-32
+12
-20

Totals
675
2170
1034
1731
224
563
10163
1240
1520
360
-13
+119
+106
31%
60%
40%
12%
    (via billjamesonline.net)



What’s more is that this drop in production on the bases could correlate with the depressed scoring totals overall. Consider this, in 2008 and 2009, the Twins plated more than 5 runs per game. This year, the scoring total has dropped to roughly league average at 4.6 runs per game. If you look over the past several years, a pattern emerges:

Twins on the Bases:
Net Gain on Bases
Runs Scored Per Game
2004
+18
4.8
2005
-51
4.3
2006
+7
4.9
2007
-3
4.4
2008
+67
5.1
2009
+63
5.0
2010
-20
4.6


The explanation for such a downturn in the 2010 Twins’ Net Gain involves the higher volume of Twin-killings. While averaging a 12% double play rate from 2002 to 2010, the team is currently posting a 15% rate this season. These two-for-ones have erased numerous runners and muted potential rallies. The simple solution to this problem is to actually get more aggressive, such as starting runners when groundball-prone hitters like Joe Mauer are batting in double play situations.

Likewise, the Twins coaching staff have failed on several occasions to realize the limitations of their players. Jason Kubel leads the team with six outs on the bases, two of which were the results of Kubel getting burned at home plate. 

While aggressiveness on the bases is still very much a part of this year’s team’s DNA, the outs on the bases has adversely affected the scoring. Part of the blame goes towards not altering their approach in double play situations and not understanding their personnel’s limitations (a few of Kubel’s six outs on the bases is due because of poor decisions to send him). Once again, it goes back to being intelligent on the bases. Improving the efficiency by avoiding outs would greatly assist in bolstering the bottom-line.