Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Joe Nathan Breakdown

    In 2009, Joe Nathan will no longer find himself as the lone dominate closer in the AL Central.  Gone are the Todd Jones, Joe Borowskis and Ambiorix Burgoses, upgraded for high quality relievers.  The Royals' Joakim Soria made his grand entrance last year, racked up 42 saves in 2008 while strike out 25% of batters faced and producing a WHIP of 0.861.  Cleveland has acquired potentially the pitcher with the best stuff, albeit injury-prone, in Kerry Wood, who struck out 30% of batters faced and saved 34 games for the Chicago Cubs.  Detroit signed former Diamondbacks closer Brandon Lyon who saved 20 games in the desert before being transitioned back to a set up role.
    How does Joe Nathan's stuff, one that has made a living notching saves at the Metrodome for the better portion of the decade, compare with these and the rest of the league's closers? 
 

Name

FB_WHIFF

VELOCITY

USAGE

Zone%

J. Valverde

.273

95.3

61.5%

73.0%

J. Papelbon

.221

96.1

79.3%

72.7%

B. Ryan

.220

89.7

77.2%

67.0%

 K. Wood

.215

96.1

71.1% 

70.7% 

B. Wilson 

.214

96.3

74.9% 

64.7% 

J. Soria 

.209 

92.8 

73.6% 

66.7% 

 G. Sherrill

.185

90.4 

71.5%

62.7%

 J. Nathan

.184

95.2

61.0% 

61.7%

 B. Fuentes

 .170

91.8 

70.5% 

65.9% 

K. Gregg 

 .143

93.4 

64.6%

62.4% 

J. Putz 

.141

94.6

49.7% 

60.2%

B. Lidge 

.137

96.1

25.1%

54.6% 

 M. Capps

.134 

92.7 

81.8% 

69.4% 

T. Hoffman 

.132 

87.8

62.3% 

75.2% 

 B. Zieglar

.130 

86.6

87.7% 

66.9% 

F. Rodriguez 

.129 

92.9 

56.8% 

61.2% 

 B. Lyon

.127 

92.9 

71.7% 

67.7%

 M. Riveria

.125 

93.8

38.5% 

46.1% 

 B. Jenks

.098 

94.4 

68.9% 

67.0% 

F. Cordero

.050

95.4 

56.0% 

47.4%

 
    This is sort of a misrepresentation of Nathan's fastball situation.  MLB.com's Pitch F/X system likes to categorize one of his fastballs as a "splitter" (this categorization should lend some indication as to what sort of action this pitch has).  In truth, the closer has two different fastballs he likes to deploy, one just happens to have a downward burst.  The first of which is a straight four-seamed fastball, which typically registers high velocity and has far greater contact made (a lowly .100 WHIFF).  The second type is a two-seamed fastball that has a strong sinking motion.  In terms of fastballs, the sinking variety is superior at making bats miss.  In 2007, Nathan's WHIFF average on the sinking fastball was .248.  This past season the WHIFF was at .245.  Combining the two fastballs it results in an overall fastball WHIFF of .184.  If he were to rely on the sinking version alone, his WHIFF would rank second behind only Houston's Jose Valverde
 
    Nevertheless, according to the chart above Nathan's fastball stands up fairly well, 8th out of 20 closers listed.  Ahead of him are power arms in Valvarde, Jonathon Papelbon, Kerry Wood and Brian Wilson (all above 95-mph).  Joakim Soria's fastball has some filthy movement while both BJ Ryan and George Sherill benefit from throwing against the earth's rotation (read: they're left-handed).  What separates Nathan from the Woods and the Papelbons is in his use of the pitch.  Both Papelbon and Wood are predominately fastball pitchers, both throwing their fastball more than 70% of the time but also attacking the strike zone as well.  Nathan, on the other hand, does not use his fastball nearly as much - despite having similar velocity - and does not exercise as much zone precision. 
 
    Nathan's secondary, or rather his out pitch, is his slider.  After setting up opposing batters with one of his two types of fastball, Nathan issues a sit-on-down, hard-sweeping slider that touches the upper 80's and incites numerous empty swings.  Even though it leaves a stream of opponents muttering to themselves on the way back to the dugout, of the slider-featuring closers, Nathan's slider hardly receives top honors.  That privilege goes to Brad Lidge.  Lidge, as you will see, has the dirtiest sliders in the league.  Referencing the fastball table above, Lidge throws his fastball only a quarter of the time while most tend to use it two-thirds of the time, but Lidge is so confident in his slider that he throws it over half of the time.  Thrown in the mid-80s, Lidge's slider has a .496 WHIFF average.  Another way to interpret this WHIFF is to say that every other swing is a miss.  Just to be able to make contact against Lidge's slider is a feat, so you better believe it isn't hit all that squarely.  The Reds' Francisco Cordero, the next best slider, receives 20% fewer swing-and-misses than Lidge's.

Name

SLD_WHIFF

USAGE

Zone%

B. Lidge

.496

55.2%

68.7%

F. Cordero

.396

28.1%

60.4%

J. Nathan

.373

30.6%

65.5%

K. Gregg

.261

21.2%

50.1%

B. Wilson

.260

25.0%

49.3%

B. Ryan

.209

22.8%

50.6%

 
    This is not to discredit Nathan's slider either: his slider still flirts with 40% of swings missing.  In fact, among all the pitches thrown at least 15% of the time, Nathan's slider has the eighth-best WHIFF. 

Name

Type

WHIFF

USAGE

Zone%

K. Wood

curve

.533

29.3%

57.3%

B. Lidge

slider

.496

55.2%

72.7%

T. Hoffman

change

.475

25.7%

67.2%

J. Putz

change

.441

34.8% 

55.4% 

B. Fuentes

slider

.417

15.8% 

64.0%

F. Cordero

change

.415

15.9%

60.9% 

F. Cordero

slider

.396

28.1%

60.4%

 J. Nathan

slider

.373

30.6% 

65.5%

 J. Valverde

change

.364 

33.9%

67.3% 

F. Rodriguez

curve

.362 

28.9%

58.0% 

J. Papalbon

change

.347

18.7% 

62.6%

G. Sherrill

curve

.338

23.8%

65.0% 

B. Lyon

curve

.302

24.4% 

66.7% 

M. Rivera

cutter

.281

52.3% 

70.2% 

 J. Valverde

fastball

.273

61.5% 

73.0% 

K. Gregg 

slider

.261

21.3% 

50.5% 

 B. Wilson

slider

.226

25.0% 

49.3%

J. Papelbon

fastball

.221

79.3% 

72.7% 

B. Ryan

fastball

.220

77.2% 

67.0% 

B. Wilson

fastball

.214

74.9% 

64.7%

 
    Kerry Wood's $20 million, two-year contract looks very accurate in relation to his stuff.  His fastball was the fourth-best among closers while his hammer-curve gets the honors for the best pitch on the market - better than Lidge's slider and better than the legendary Trevor Hoffman cottonball changeup.  Then again, his arm falls off like the Scarecrow's hey inners so you can't assume he will be available from April to October without some ailment.  Joakim Soria lives off of his fastball - one that isn't thrown particularly hard - but gets bats to miss nonetheless.  Without a complementary out-pitch, Soria may be in for a rough patch in 2009.  Brandon Lyon hardly makes a blip on the charts.  Although his curveball is of value (.302 WHIFF), his fastball has pus written all over it.  Short of Wood maintaining active roster status the entire 162-games, Nathan should retain the title of best closer in the AL Central.