For Baker, release matters

Facing the Royals, a team who struggled to score runs (4.05 per game) and strikes out in hearty portion of their plate appearances (15%) it would be assumed that Scott Baker would slice through them like a butter-knife in melted Velveeta.  After all, Baker's most recent start bucked a trend in which he had gone at least six innings with a minimum of five strikeouts in his past five starts dating back to June 4th.  The Twins starter would need 111 pitches to labor his way through five innings and only accumulated a solitary strikeout of Tony Pena Jr.  Just one?  One g'damn strikeout?  Heck, Miguel Olivo and Mike Jacobs have combined to strikeout in nearly 30 percent of their plate appearances alone - and neither succumbed to Baker who had struck out 34 in his previous 34 innings.  The Royals were able to constantly fouled off pitches as Baker failed to flip anything resembling an out-pitch towards the plate.

 

Ron Gardenhire told the media following the game that "I don't know how to explain what [Baker] said in the dugout. He said, 'I was making just a bad enough pitch for them to foul it off or a good enough pitch for them to not make an out.' Figure that one out. He got through it.''  This outing was reminiscent of the April/May Scott Baker.  The one who struck out 29 in 38 innings while opponents slugged .522 off of him in seven starts between April 15th and May 19th. Let's examine his release point in this start to see if this tells us anything about his performance.  The cluster shows that Baker's release point on Tuesday night ranged from slightly below six feet high to slightly above six feet.  If you look closer here, you'll notice that his fastball is thrown more frequently with a lower release point as he attempts to stay on top of the ball for his off-speed deliveries.  

 

Here is another graph of his more recent outing in Milwaukee last Thursday where Baker went six innings with five strikeouts but only got two strikes total swinging (closer look here). During this outing, Baker is releasing his pitches at virtually the same horizontal angle, yet his vertical release point range is below six feet in height:       

 

In his last two starts, Baker has been a somewhat different pitcher then he was at the beginning of June.  Baker totaled 11 innings with six strikeouts but walked five batters and got only 4 percent of his strikes on swings.  Comparatively, his first four starts of the month, he pitched 28 innings while striking out 29 and walking just three as 11 percent of his strikes came on swings. 

 

Reflecting back on his April 22nd start against Boston in which he struck out just three in four innings of work, we find that his release point was very similar to that of his most recent against the Royals and Brewers where the majority of his release points were below six feet high (a closer view here). 

 

 

Compare this past outing with his June 4th, 2009 start against the Cleveland Indians (a game where he struck out a season-high 10 batters) and you'll notice that all pitches have been released above six feet in height.  Each one of his fastballs have been thrown above the six foot mark as well, creating a better downward plain (seen closer here):

 

 

Here is his May 24th outing versus Milwaukee in which Baker went 8 1/3 innings while striking out six and walking no one (closer look here):

 

His May 24th and his June 4th arm angles are nearly identical.  Baker maintained a constant release point above six feet in height and managed to strike out sixteen and walked just one in 15 innings while getting swinging strikes on 20 percent of his total strikes thrown.

 

What can we deduce and conclude from the graphs above? 

 

The obvious is that the lower the release point, the less likely Baker is at getting an empty swing.  This may be a byproduct of a pitch flattening out when released at the lower angle and getting less movement on his pitches.  Opponents, much like last night, are able to keep the at-bat alive by fouling off numerous pitches causing his pitch count to rise.  The second problem the lower point of release creates is of control.  As mentioned, when he keeps his arm higher, Baker walked just one of 59 batters faced on May 24th/June 4th starts. 

 

What are the factors that are causing this drop?  Is it associated with the length of his stride, caused by different mound environments?  Is this change in arm angles a symptom of a tired shoulder or perhaps general apathy?  Is the release point difference caused by different mound environments?  This is something that pitching coach Rick Anderson needs to dignose and address quickly to keep his release from drifting southward in order to gain better results. 

OtB Twins Notes (06.29.09)

Jim Souhan stresses the importance of Justin Morneau's long ball to the Twins' overall play, indicating that the Twins are 13-3 when the big Canadian homers.

 

In the booth, Dick 'n Bert noted during Friday's broadcast that Morneau had been working on not striding to keep his head (and along with it, his eye level) steady.  Hitting coach Joe Vavra offered some insight to this approach: "The last couple of days, he's gone with the no-stride approach just to corral the strike zone.  He worked a few walks, so I think he started feeling the zone and his timing a little bit, and today he went with a stride, and he was able to minimize it.''  Although he went 1-for-9 since Thursday in Milwaukee, he coaxed four walks.  Avid Twins fans may recall that Michael Cuddyer took a similar approach to refining his discipline at the end of April.  He was hitting just .224 when he decided to focus on reaching base through working the count.  Over the course of four games, Cuddyer went 2-for-9 but worked out seven walks. The next eleven games, Cuddyer hit .368/.442/.658 in 43 plate appearances. 

 

Bobby Keppel's four inning introduction to the Twins was acceptable.  He got 70 percent of balls in play to be beat into the ground while he struck out three and walked another three.  This was the expectation for the recently DFA'ed Luis Ayala at the beginning of the season when the Twins signed him this past offseason.   The Twins touted Ayala's groundball ability thanks to a sink action.  However, where Keppel's sink actually exists (as seen here), Ayala's pitchers were consistently up in the zone (seen here).  It has become evident that the Twins signed Ayala on reputation alone. 

 

The Twins will look to add a 12th pitcher now that inter-league play is over says La Velle E Neal.  Though a popular choice, Robert Delaney has not had the best introduction to AAA.  In 15.1 innings, Delaney has a 11-to-6 K-to-BB ratio while giving up three home runs and 11 earned runs.  The hard-throwing Juan Morillo has been a rollarcoaster, striking out 40 in 30 innings while allowing a .183 batting average against but walking 20 with a 3.30 ERA.  Meanwhile, Jesse Crain has struck out seven while walking three in his 3.2 innings of work since being demoted.  Unless the Twins have intentions of converting Anthony Swarzak to the bullpen, Crain is probably the logically choice to return to the major-league roster.

 

FoxSports' Ken Rosenthal reminds us that Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett is currently the top shortstop in OPS at .969 comparative to the league average of .706.  Brendan Harris, meanwhile, has produced a .790 OPS since taking over short.

 

Aaron Gleeman asks "What Happened to All The Bunt Hits?" from a year ago.

 

J.C. Romero is back in the news from grabbing 25-year-old Robert Eaton by the neck after Romero refused to sign an autograph and Eaton brought up Romero's recent steroid bust.  Commenting on this situation may be too much like a pot-calling-the-kettle-black coming from someone that blogs about baseball -and I certainly don't condone the actions of former Twin Romero - but for crissake, don't be a 25-year-old yahoo asking major-leaguers for autographs.  And if you do insist on requesting signatures, when he refuses to sign, ixnay on the eroid-stay. 

 

Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval had a late night room change at 3 AM in Milwaukee after what he thought was a ghost in his room.  This is not an out of the ordinary charge at the Pfister Hotel.  This old, but luxurious, hotel in downtown Milwaukee is over 116-years-old and has been the guests of visiting ballclubs for years.  Numerous clubs have noted strange noises - Adrian Beltre, then a Dodger, slept with his bat in his bed the entire night.  A few Marlins bunked together out of fear of the paranormal.  Other guests claim they have seen the images of the hotel's first owner Charles Pfister overlooking the grand lobby.  Carlos Gomez had a run in with the hotel a year ago when his iPod kept mysteriously turning on from across the room.

 

Ken Lipshez examines the difference between winning and developing at double-A New Britain.  Not surprisingly, mid-market clubs like Minnesota have to place a greater emphasis on getting plate appearances and innings for their prospects while teams like the Portland Sea Dogs (Red Sox) and Trenton Thunder (Yankees) have much older rosters and have won or been runners-up in the Eastern League North Division the past four years. 

National League ball? Yes, please.

The intricacies of National League baseball are downright beautiful. 

 

If a style of play were like a television sitcom, National League ball would have a complexity and subtleties like that of the multi-layered Arrested Development.  The American League play, on the other hand, is better geared towards those that need a structured guidance and those that appreciate a laugh-track much like Everyone Loves Raymond. 

 

The majority of managers in the American League today appear to be on autopilot.  The only semblance of strategy is deciding whether or not implement the infield shift on hitters like David Ortiz, Jim Thome or Travis Hafner.  It is a glorified softball league.  It seems to me that more and more, National League teams are starting to mimic their American League counterparts.  Consider the rosters of the hacktastic Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks.  These are organizations that have lumbering sluggers more appropriate for play at USCellular.  This shouldn't be surprising as those organizations have inserted uninspired managers that come equipped with AL pedigrees as both players and managers so it is expected that they would operate their team as such.  It is uninspired.  Still, even if trends might be suggesting that the style of play is shifting towards that of the American League-type behavior, I still envy the National League for supplying the frameworks that fosters innovation.

 

Where else would someone like Cardinals manager Tony Larussa thrive?  Larussa and his Redbirds are such a breath of fresh air in an otherwise unimaginative league.  Anyone who has read Three Nights In August realizes how much  Larussa agonizes over every minutia of strategy, of every match-up, of every pitch.  He's playing every possible scenario over in his head to determine what provides his team the greatest advantage.  He is a self-admitting proponent of playing the statistically beneficial platoon match-up but recognizes that they are far from foolproof.  LaRussa has instituted various strategies, like the one-inning closer, that are by and large followed by every team today (for better or worse).  During the 2007 season, Larussa moved his pitcher up on position in the batting order to give the Cardinals the "second lead-off hitter" - an entity that Twins fans hear frequently when either Nick Punto or Carlos Gomez is hitting out of the ninth spot.  Research will show you that this strategy will prove fruitless over enough games, yet Larussa was not afraid to go against baseball's common logic while the rest of the league's coaches coast on cruise control.  

 

So when the Twins sent pitcher Glen Perkins to the plate with runners on second and first with one out, my attentiveness increased threefold.  With a three run lead in the top of the sixth inning, the Twins were looking to advance Michael Cuddyer to third and Joe Crede to second.  To an unappreciative outsider, this situation would have been an ordinary bunt attempt, but as Buzz Bissinger described in Three Nights regarding Larussa's infield defenses "the complexities are dizzying, the effort to prevent something perhaps encouraging the very thing you want to prevent, the system of pulleys and levers vengeful and sadistic, damned if you do and, given the normal shelf life of a major-league manager - about four years - damned if you do anyway."    

On Friday night, with a three-run lead and three at-bats remaining, the Cardinals wanted to do everything they could to get the second out a third and keep the differential at three.  Larussa ordered first baseman Albert Pujols to position himself 3/4ths of the way to home while third baseman Joe Thurston drifted halfway down the line to cover the left-side of the infield.   If a ball would be bunted by Perkins, it would have very little real estate to roll before one of four players engulfed it.  Back over at second, second baseman Skip Schumaker was holding Cuddyer on like a first baseman to keep him from advancing to the unoccupied third prior to the pitch.  Upon the pitch, Schumaker would have to make a mad dash to first to field a throw in the event that the only play would be there.  Cardinals shortstop Tyler Greene was cheating toward third ready to cover that base where the first out option would be for the defense.  Dizzying complexities indeed.

 

Perkins took a ball then fouled off a bunt attempted to bring the count even.  With 2/3rds of the infield within a fifty foot radius of home plate, the Twins had Perkins try to pull back and hack at a pitch, hoping to chop it hard enough passed the charging infield and possibly score Cuddyer from second.  Perkins instead bounced the pitch up the first base line but foul.  On 1-2, Perkins managed to lay down a bunt that would land in a space just in front of the pitcher Adam Wainwright whose only play wound up being at first giving the Twins a successful sacrifice.   

 

Yes, the inning eventually ended on Denard Span's ensuing ground out rendering the entire production meaningless.  Where else but in the National League does this kind of play exist?  Where there is a 100 percent certainty that a batter is going to bunt?  Yes, you can argue that replacing a player whose soul purpose is to bunt creates the offense and with it, a broader fan-base (one that can float seamlessly between monster truck rallies and long home runs).  The designated hitter is a bell that cannot be unrung.  It is ingrained in the fabric of the sport and ensures that 14 players that would have otherwise moved on to greener pastures still receive a paycheck.  That said, we can take the opportunity to celebrate the few days a year now when baseball truly has strategy again. 

 

OtB Twins Notes (06.22.09)

It seems that Joe Mauer gave Jason Kubel the flu.  Kubel left in the third inning of Sunday's game vomiting but is expected to be okay for the Milwaukee series starting on Tuesday.    

 

Tom Powers is convinced that Luis Ayala might be the first to be jettisoned from the roster in 2009.  Ayala had been a pitcher that has seen various results - depending on his locale.  In 19.1 innings of work at the Dome, he has posted a 8/6 K/BB ratio with a .370 batting average against.  Away from Minneapolis, Ayala has thrown 13 innings with a 13/2 K/BB ratio and a .186 batting average against.  Ayala could be very useful over the course of the next nine games while traveling to Milwaukee, St. Louis and Kansas City. 

 

You love this game, admit it:

Month of June	Innings	K/BB	BAVG	ERA	Leverage Index
Player A	4.1	4/3	.368	14.54	0.59
Player B	9.2	8/1	.243	3.72	0.69

 

In order to move Jesse Crain down to Rochester, the Twins were forced into a roster move.  The sacrificial lamb in this case was Twin Cities native Ben Hendrickson announces Jim Mandelaro.  Hendrickson's tenure in the Twins organization where he pitched in six games in relief and worked 10.2 innings while walking nine and striking out nine.  After posting a 7.84 ERA, the Twins no longer had use for him in the bullpen.

 

When it comes to bullpen help from within the system Joe Christensen reiterated what general manager Bill Smith said on the Twins' pre-game show on AM1500 which is that the team could give some serious consideration to right-hander Bobby Keppel.  The 27-year-old has worked in 23 games with three starts at Rochester, throwing 55 innings while posting a pedestrian 28/13 K/BB.  Like Ayala, Keppel is a big contact pitcher and has been getting a ton of groundballs (55 percent) and has plenty of outs converted behind him (.158 average on GB).  Smith will be in Rochester this week to assess the AAA stock and could make a decision quickly as Keppel's contract has an opt-out clause if he does not make the big league team by July 1st.

 

When you hear about how good Alexi Casilla's numbers are at the plate in Rochester, just write it down and forget it.  Casilla's mental lapses continue to carry on in the minors.  Kelsie Smith reports that Casilla made yet another throwing error on a routine play at second. "That's the part I don't like to hear, but he's swinging the bat better," Manager Ron Gardenhire said. "I like to see him catching all the balls and not hear the routine error thing."  With Nick Punto hitting .450 (9-for-20) and hitting line drives at an unsustainable 38 percent clip since assuming second base, Gardenhire has little incentive to move Casilla back to the Twin Cities...that is until Punto crushed his ribs on a needless head-first slide into first base. 

 

I don't weigh in on performance-enhancing drugs or any of the players that so choose to partake in the experience because to me there is so much grey area.  Denard Span, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer are all recipients of LASIK eye surgery.  Did that enhance their performances?   Not really, its such a commonplace and, not to mention, legal thing that no one really bats an eyelash.  This circumstance is obviously not Jose Canseco injecting Mark McGwire in his buttock in a bathroom stall but Cuddyer's recent cortisone shot to his index finger is another such example of an acceptable use of a steroid.  According to Tom Power's column last week, receiving a shot of cortisone isn't like your average flu shot.  It's like the doctor inserting a metal McDonald's drinking straw into your finger.  Had Cuddyer not taken the cortisone, he would have been certain to miss more games. It is strange how baseball says that you can use this one under this condition but all others are off the table. (Here's Wade Boggs with the opposite stance on the War of Drugs, by the way.  Fueled by High Life.)

 

(I'm not sure what I just said but I immediately regret the Canseco/McGwire buttock thing.)

 

Jayson Stark of ESPN.com wrote that the Twins have been telling other teams that Delmon Young is "exceptionally available".  In a recent trip to the Twins Pro Shop in Apple Valley, I took note that the retailer was selling street banners that hung around the Plaza from the 2008 season that included ex-Twins Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Craig Monroe and one current Twin: Delmon Young.  You decide whether this is sheer coincidence or an ominous sign that Young's days in Minnesota are numbered.

 

Twinkie Town suggests that Pirates' Freddy Sanchez might be the solution to the Twins production at second base.  At this point, Tommy Herr would be an upgrade at two. 

 

It did not work as intended by Bill James when he and Theo Epstein introduced a disasterous closer-by-committee to the Red Sox bullpen in 2003, nevertheless the Rochester Red Wings are implementing the same theory at AAA.  Since closer Sean Henn was called up to Minnesota, the Red Wings have been left without a closer so at the end of the games manager Stan Cliburn will use Tim Lahey, Rob Delaney or Juan Morillo to save games at different times says Jim Mandelaro.

 

Fort Myer Miracle Chris Parmelee, one of the rare heavy artillery hitters in the Twins organization, won the FSL All Star Game Home Run Derby contest. 

 

As predicted, the Twins 27th round draft pick, Erik Decker, will remain a Gopher and focus on the gridiron rather than the diamond.

 

Lastly, I'm Twitting.  Follow me if you think that might me be the kind of thing that you think that you are in to.

Player A = Juan Cruz, Player B = Luis Ayala 

 

 

The Development of Nick Blackburn

Nick Blackburn’s nine inning gem yesterday afternoon was a thing of beauty.  I’ve said it before that I believe Blackburn’s attributes make him a prime candidate to not withstand the ebb and flow of defensive changes.  To be sure, by retiring just 10 percent of batters through a strikeout, Blackburn has placed the majority of his success in the hands of his surrounding fielders.  Rarely are pitchers successful for a long period of time without the ability to strikeout batters, eventually hitters find seams in the defense.  But let’s put that logic aside for a moment and just celebrate Blackburn for what he is, here and now.

 

Through his first 14 starts, Blackburn has managed to win six games and lose just two, making his .750% winning percentage in the top ten of AL starters, not to mention that his 3.09 ERA is within the top eight as well.  Since his May 10^th start Blackburn has had a 1.85 ERA yet because of offensive shortcomings or bullpen implosions, the Twins have gone just 4-4 in those eight starts.  It is clear that Blackburn’s performance is contingent of avoiding hard contact.  His balls in play has witnessed a precipitous drop in the amount of line drives from last season (falling from 20.9% in ’08 to 16.0% in ’09) in addition to an ample drop in the amount of flyballs leaving the yard (10% in ’08 versus 5.9% in ’09).  Because of this, Blackburn’s slugging percentage against has also subsided (from .441 a year ago to .384 this year). 

 

Retiring hitters the first time through the order has also been are area of vast improvement for the Oklahoman.  In 132 match-ups in 2009, Blackburn has allowed no home runs while keeping the wolves at bay through a .207/.265/.314 batting line.  Compare that to last season when he allowed 10 home runs and a .303/.337/.458 batting line in 301 plate appearances. 

 

Clearly the area in which he has improved the most is getting outs by way of groundballs.  As his groundball percentage has increased (from 44.9% to 46.9%), Blackburn has seen more of them converted to outs and shaved points off of his batting average against on grounders (from .259 in ’08 to .205 in ‘09).  The Joe Crede acquisition might be most beneficial to this development.  In John Dewan’s Stat of the Week column, Dewan highlighted the top defensive fielders by looking at their “runs saved” figures that Crede’s 8 runs saved is tied for 5^th and the third-highest among third basemen (Seattle’s Adrian Beltre and Washington’s Ryan Zimmerman have saved 9 apiece).  Include Crede in the infield and the Twins have a fairly stalwart defense.

 

Another aspect that has led to success is his variety of pitches that are thrown consistently for strikes.  During yesterday’s game, Pirate Eric Hinske told catcher Mike Redmond that the pitch he had hit was the first one of the dozen he had seen that was the least bit hittable.  Looking at Blackburn’s pitch assortment on brooksbaseball.net, you can see the collection of pitches that Blackburn throws and the different breaks associated with each pitch.

 

Look at the motion of each pitch.  Blackburn has three distinctly pitches that bend into right-handed batters and away from lefties (four-seam, two-seam and changeup) and three others that run in on left-handed batters and away from righties (cutter, slider, curve). 

 

Here's another thing that makes his slider (1.18 wSL/C) and his curve (0.62 wCV/C) particularly effective is that Blackburn's pitch repertoire causes plenty of issues of recognition.  Where the slider is thrown at similar velocity to his fastballs, unlike the two-or-four seamer it has a definite break away from right-handed bats.  As opposing hitters are focusing on pitches that are running in on their hands, Blackburn drops a slider that runs away.  The curveball has a different effect as it is throw with less movement then "better" curves, yet with a 15-mph difference in velocity, making it difficult for hitters to keep their weight back. 

 

There are indicators in Blackburn's numbers that suggest that the second-half of the season will not go as smoothly as the first.  Consider that his 5.9 home run-to-flyballs ratio is well below the league average is a sign that it is possible that a few more will eventually sneak over the fence.  Likewise, his batting average on groundballs might also creep up now that Brendan Harris, a shortstop with less range than Nick Punto, is manning the position.  Even still, Blackburn has made it though roughly 50% of his season's starts without an severe damage and has improved considerable in a lot of areas.